Civil Conflict of 2013

The Orbin Civil Conflict of 2013 is an ongoing affair involving extreme civilian disapproval of the government of the Orbin Federation which began on April 16, 2013, when Orbin Premier Roger Simmons was deposed by Parliament and replaced by Liberal Party leader Harold Swanson. The incident has led to civil disobedience and the threatened secession of Great Duck Island and Cockburn Island provinces.

Background
In 2008, Parliament shocked the Orbin people when they elected Liberal candidate Roger Simmons. The following year in the Parliamentary election of 2010, the Liberal Party won 82 out of 100 seats in Parliament. Until now, Parliament had been dominiated by the Traditionalist Party, which had held power since Nationalist Premier Vivix was deposed in 1999.

Simmons, despite initial unpopularity, gained the people's liking after a series of successful economic, social, and political reforms. However, people became increasingly frustrated with Liberal-dominated Parliament, who the people felt was busy "chasing windmills" rather than pursuing genuinely pressing issues.

Start of the Conflict
The issue began on Monday, April 8, 2013, when Parliament announced a bill that would place buckets of free condoms in every public park in the nation for homosexuals who engaged in one-night-stands in the bushes. This bill was met with extreme hostility on the people's part, including countless homosexuals who said that the bill "perpetuated stereotypes". Premier Simmons blocked the bill and issued a Premiorial Declaration that the bill be put to a second vote, which it was on Friday, April 12. It passed 82-18, but Premier Simmons vetoed it, saying: "Any bill that causes this much backlash would, if implimented, only do more harm than good."

On Tuesday, April 16, Parliament announced at noon that early that morning, they had met in secret and voted 82-18 to depose Roger Simmons as Premier of the Orbin Federation and install Harold Swanson, leader of the Liberal Party, in his place. Premier Simmons was ordered to leave the capital city of Poncet by sundown or be arrested. At approximately 2:16 PM, Simmons boarded a helicopter and flew north. One week later it was reported that Simmons was living with his wife, Rebecca, in their home in the suburbs of Walkerville, Gomez, keeping a low profile.

Premier Swanson
From the start, the Orbin people immensely disliked 66-year-old, overweight, grouchy, arrogant, long-winded Harold Swanson over 54-year-old, thin, relaxed, professional Roger Simmons. During his inauguration speech (which Verity columnist George Klerkenn said "contained so many buzzwords and unmemorable wooden language that it actually manages to be memorable much the way Plan 9 From Outter Space is such a poor quality film that it actually has become widely beloved") Swanson was oft drowned out by booing from the enraged crowd.

Swanson and the Liberal Party further angered the people by refusing to hold an emergency election to fill the 18 empty seats Parliament. Detractors accused the Liberal Party of conspiring to seize control of Orb and turn the country into a single-party state.

Great Duck Island
From the morning after his inauguration as Premier on, the St. Edmund Times, principal newspaper of Great Duck Island province and noted right-wing Orbin publication, hammered Harold Swanson, his government, and his party with insults and accusations of everything from election fraud to political corruption to violation of the constitution.

On April 20, Premier Swanson issued a Premiorial Declaration ordering the St. Edmund Times end its political heckling on the grounds that it was knowingly "striking flints in a time when all the nation's tinderbox". The following day, the Times replied by further mocking Premier Swanson further, calling him "insecure" and "unable to take criticism", among other things.

The following day, National Police officers raided the Times, arrested all staff, confiscated all assets, and effectively shut down the paper. This event sparked outrage throughout the Orbin Federation, as no Premier, not even Vivix, had ever foreably silenced any media publication prior. Great Duck Island governor Beth Cartright called Premier Swanson out, calling his actions illegal and "a violation of Great Duck Island's provincial sovereignty as promised by Templin." Swanson purportedly (though this has not been confirmed) said remarked in response, "Don't invoke Templin's name against me woman; I sit in the chair of Templin."

Governor Cartright demanded that Premier Swanson hand over the arrested staff members of the St. Edmund Times so that they could "at very least be tried in a Great Duck Island court, where they belong." Premier Swanson refused to comply, and for two weeks, St. Edmund and Poncet glared at each other, with the rest of Orb watching nervously and waiting for something to give.

Finally, on Monday, May 6, Governor Cartright sent a wire to Premier Swanson, saying that since "we refuse to stand down and you refuse to so much as talk, and you you don't want us and we don't want you, it would likely be best if we simply went our separate ways." In response to this suggestion of G.D.I. seceding from the Orbin Federation, Premier Swanson declared publically that: "Any attempt by Great Duck Island or any other province to secede from this country will suffer severe consequences and all officials involved will wish they had never been born, let alone challanged their nation."

Swanson then attempted to issue arrest warrents for Governor Cartright and G.D.I.'s government, but the High Court of the Orbin Federation ruled that since the province in question had not attempted to secede, rather simply suggested it, Cartright and her cabinet had done nothing illegal, and thus the Premier could not issue an arrest warrent.

Great Duck Island continued to stand its ground despite Swanson and Parliament's orders to stand down and cease all protests. The Orbin people watched, many supporting Great Duck Island against what they felt was a corrupt government, staging protests chanting "Great Duck Island! Great Duck Island! Great Duck Island!" and changing Facebook profile pictures to the G.D.I. flag, maps of the province, or pictures saying "Stand with Great Duck Island".

Chanting of the defiant province's name has oft drowned out Swanson's speeches completely.

Cockburn Island
On May 29, Cockburn Island's governor, Jason Frederick, announced that were Great Duck Island to secede from the Orbin Federation, "or in any way be pitted against the national government in Poncet", Cockburn Island province would side with them.

(Cockburn has a close relationship with G.D.I., as its original white settlers were Great Ducks and it was, prior the Unification, part of Great Duck Island).

In response to this, Swanson issued a statement that "left many Liberals with their faces in their palms": "You are both minute; Great Duck in area, Cockburn in population. Subduing a rebellion on your part would be a piece of cake."

Riots
On June 12, a riot broke out in the streets of New Bristol. Rioters are mostly disgruntled students from the University of New Bristol, Natives, and members of the working class. Reasons cited as motivation for the riot were "Swanson bullying the provinces", purported corruption on the part of the Liberal Party, and gas prices in Lakemark province reaching ₱6.00 (US$6.80) per gallon.

The New Bristol Police Dept. (NBPD) has thus far been unable to quell the rioting, which started at approximately 10 in the morning and has continued well into the night.

By June 14, the rioting in New Bristol had not been quelled, and the following day further riots broke out in Wikwemikong and White Wolf. In addition, several arrests were made in St. Jude, Poncet, Port Temikahah, and Kiawak.

Threat of Civil War
On June 15, The Economist reported that the Orbin Federation was "in genuine danger of collapsing into civil war." Many Orbin commentators and scholars have agreed that they fear a civil war may be immenant.

That same day, Premier Swanson appeared on all Orbin television networks and delivered what reviewers have called "his only geniuine speech to date", He pleaded that the rioters "lay down your arms, lest we all spiral into something that spells ruin for our dear nation." Swanson was noted to lack his "usual haughtiness", and appeared to have "lost some weight from all the stress."

OBC News interviewed Prof. Roland Wiggins of St. Ambrose University in St. Edmund, GDI, who said of the threat of civil war:

"If Great Duck, Cockburn, and Odaawa seceded together, they would, combined, take with them roughly one third of Orbin population. However, whether or not they would succeed would ultimately depend on if Minising joined them or not. If Minising sided with Poncet, then the western rebellion would be divided, and a naval blockade could easily keep the rebelling provinces from receiving goods, and the military could shell St. Edmund, carpet bomb Cockburn, and land forces could invade Odaawa. But if Minising joined the rebellion, they would be united, and the situation would totally change; it would now be a struggled between the metropolitan east and the rural west. The two sides would likely come to a stalemate, and we could potentially see a situation not unlike that of China-Taiwan arise: two rival governments, both claiming to be the 'true' Orbin Federation."

On June 18, Owen Chapman, host of OBC World Newst at 8 remarked darkly that: "If Orb ever has a civil war, she will most likely have it now."

On June 20, OBC World News at 8 announced that: "in our opinion, a civil war would effectively ruin the country. Were GDI, CB, and OD to secede, than Swanson would almost certainly order St. Edmund be shelled, which would outrage the people to the point of instigating a mass uprising, while air planes would take off from St. Jude and begin firebombing Poncet. However, this action would enrage the people in the rebelling provinces to revolt against their government, and the entire catyclism would likely cause the comeplete and total collapse of the Orbin Federaiton. Yes, something would rise from the ashes, but there is a very good chance that the successors would simply abandon the idea of a unified Orb, saying 'well, we gave it a try, and it failed', and go their own ways. Either way, a civil war must be avoided at all costs."

Lines are Drawn
On June 19, Odaawa's provincial government announced that: "In that event that the provinces of Great Duck Island and Cockburn Island withdraw from the Orbin Federation, we the province of Odaawa pledge allegiance to their cause."

In response to this, Gomez province vowed loyalty to Premier Swanson "to the very end" (Gomez has the highest percentage of Liberal Party members, is home to the Liberal Party national headquarters, and home province of Premiers Simmons and Swanson both).

On June 26, rumors began circulating that Great Duck Island, Cockburn Island, and Odaawa have begun drafting a constitution for a potential new country. Premier Swanson respond by saying that "these rumours cannot be confirmed, thereore no action will be taken until more information as to the situation can be gleaned."

One of the rumored provisions of "West Orb"'s purported constitution was the planned implimentation of a system resembling the Electoral College used in the United States whereby the Premier would be chosen by the provinces instead of national parliament.

Statistics
The approval ratings of Premier Simmons vs Premier Swanson by province:

Simmons' approval ratings jumped in all eight provinces after he denounced the "condom-bill". Swanson was controversial from the start and left his own party divided, but now that the country is at the brink of civil war, Swanson's approval rating has plummeted in all provinces and the Liberal Party is itself on the verge of splintering.

Negotiations and the future
On July 25, Premier Swanson announced that he was willing to negotiate the situation. Governor Cartright answered Swanson's call, and on the following day on July 26, Swanson announced that negotiations would officially begin on August 1, 2013.

Many have taken this announcement as more-or-less confirmation that Harold Swanson will not be Premier of the Orbin Federaton for longer than a few more months at most. Liberal Party leadership has denied that Premier Swanson intends on resigning, however.

Verity reporter Herman Jessup said this: "Orb will, inevitably, transform with the negotiations. More than likely, Premier Swanson will step down, and the government will hold an election which the Traditionalist Party would most likely win. Then, Orb will transform in one of two ways: either a bright new figure will emerge as Premier and heal the country's wounds and possibly lead Orb into a new golden age; or the same Traditionalist Party that gave us Edward Benson Jr. and tried to give us George Tuttle will seize control and enact protectionist policies basically barring all foreign business and enterprise, nationalize the Church of Orb (and grant the Catholics a favorite-status, too), establish severe restrictions on virtually all aspects of life, and possibly even expell certain groups such as Mormons and Muslim immigrants. The latter would doom Orb to be a third-world backwater, but the Traditionalists wouldn't care, because they would reign supreme. Let us pray the former happens... for all our sake."

Political
The Civil Conflict of 2013 is widely considered by the Orbin people to be the culmination of years of rampant, unfettered corruption which has earned the Orbin government an extremely negative reputation among western nations. Many, however, hope that this incident will more than likely lead to a "cleaning up" of Orbin politics.

Less optimistic individuals, however, believe that this could very possibly spell the end of the Orbin Federation, or worse: doom the country to a future of political, cultural and economic stagnation and corruption.

Social
The Liberal Party, which had become a favorite amongst the youth of Orb, has suffered immensely since the Conflict began. Many young people have become so disgusted at the party that they have expressed intention to distance themselves from all forms of politics. One commentator remarked: "The Liberals had the most important thing a political party could possibly have: the support of the new generation; but the party leadership's lust for power managed to completely obliterate that in a matter of months."

Others, however, have taken the opposite stance: finally sick of all the corruption, some young people have committed themselves to making Orb a true western democracy.

Economic
The Orbin economy, which had been stagnant since 1997, began to rebound in early 2013 thanks to economic policies implimented by Premier Simmons. However, due to the political instability wrought from the Conflict and the threat of civil war, the Orbin economy has plunged into a massive recession, and the Orbin Pinnun has all but collapsed, suffering massive levels of inflation. On April 5, just before Simmons' deposoal, the Pinnun was valued at P1 = US$0.91, the highest the currency had been in years; but on July 20, the Pinnun had fallen so much that US$1 = P12.16.

Canada
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said on July 12: "Were the Orbin Federation to collapse, all of North America would feel the effects." Experts agree that should a civil war break out, the Great Lakes seaway would be effectively blocked due to fighting in Lake Huron (Orb's location in the heart of Lake Huron, and by extension, the Great Lakes, gives it the strategic advantage of more-or-less having control over what gets in or out of Lake Huron). Premier Swanson announced at the beginning of July that were a civil war to break out, "I will personally grind all Great Lakes shipping to a halt." He later threatened to "quarentine Lake Superior by using the [Orbin] Navy to block all ships trying to enter or leave [the lake]."

United States
U.S. President Barack Obama said on July 20: "The United States is prepared to mediate in order to prevent the Orbin Federation from descending into civil war." In response to Swanson's threats of shutting down the seaway, Secretary of State John Kerry phoned Premier Swanson and purportedly warned: "If the Orbin Federation attempts to block the seaway, the United States will intervene."

Europe
German Chancelor Angela Merkel remarked on July 19 about the threats Premier Swanson was making: "What do the Orbins have to gain by antagonizing their neighbours? Premier Swanson's antics are not at all acceptable behaviour from a western nation."